The more confident a trader’s advice, the less i trust them.

By | March 29, 2017

OK that is a blanket statement, but I’m sticking with it… for now.

In the 3 whole months of decently hard research I’ve done to date about the stock market, day trading, swing trading, reading charts, shorting, and trends, one thing I have found almost without question is this query that keeps coming back in my head again and again.  Why would someone ‘give away’ or ‘sell’ their secret sauce – aka a ‘big secret’ to making loads of money in the stock market.

The truth is, those that have actually found a system that is working well and working consistently (I think consistently is one of the most important things as far as investing goes) would have almost 0 interest in offering this up to people, even at a price.  While it kind of makes sense, in that by having people agree with your suggestions, it could hypothetically move the stock in your favor (say 100 people buy the same stock as you at the same price, it would move up theoretically), the VAST majority of stocks are so large, and traded so strongly, that this simply would not affect the market in any recognizable way.  So going back to the system; most really decent systems would be a pretty big secret in my humble opinion.

This leads me back to my original statement:  The more brazen and bold confidence a system has or individual trader has, the less I’m likely to believe them.

I recently came across a day trader on YouTube who I have enjoyed watching.  He records his daily trading sessions, and talks through them.  What I appreciate about him is how often he is saying.. “This one is tricky”  or “I’m not sure about this one”  or “I made a mistake” after pulling out of a stock, or staying with a stock too long.  His name is Albert Ding, I’ll add a link to his YouTube account here.  I find it very fascinating to watch someone making decisions LIVE and discussing them LIVE and actually ‘practice what you preach’.  It is the EASIEST thing in the world to pull up an old stock chart, and ‘Monday morning quarterback’ the chart to find the results you are looking for.  Doing it in the moment is much more interesting, and better yet, much more impressive.  I think its a two way street as well, knowing people are watching will keep you in check and keep you from ‘revenge trading’ or getting too high or low.

This whole system parallels another famous opportunity littered with ‘experts’ offering advice – Sports betting.  Same principles apply, really.  If you really had the ability to make loads of profits sports betting, would you not keep this to yourself?

Perhaps streaming live stock trading is something I will do one day. Watch out Twitch!

 

Howie

 

 

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